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Sudan 2012. Scenarios for the future

1 September 2009

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Sudan 2012. Scenarios for the future

The future of Sudan is uncertain. This Sept 2009 paper describes four possible scenarios for the future of Sudan, defined by two key uncertainties: In 2012, will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? And in 2012, will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war? The four scenarios are: The Last War Revisited; Border Wars; CPA Hurray; and Be Careful What You Wish For: Somalia? Five main findings have arisen from the scenario exercise: the current situation will likely deteriorate and violence and armed conflict will continue in Sudan; the ‘CPA Hurray!’ scenario – the only one that promises a less violent future – appears less plausible; the organisation of free and fair elections is essential; continuous outside mediation and pressure is needed to get all parties to implement the CPA and to make unity attractive; and the critical difference between a successful and unsuccessful outcome will to a large extent be determined by whether the South has a stable, cooperative and confident leadership.


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